Currency Fundamental Trends

Fundamental Trends are usually long to very long term trends (up to severals years) and mirror political and economical situations.

Currency Bias Reasons Recommandation
EUR unstable
  • depth crisis
  • USD weak
  • high inflation expectation (incomming recession?)
  • xxx/USD - long
    USD/xxx - short
    JPY
    GBP little weaker than EUR
  • pessimistic on the prospects of the UK economy
  • CHF
    CAD
    NZD very strong (prob. temporary)
  • uptrend since corona
  • xxx/NZD - short
    NZD/xxx - long
    AUD strong
  • AUD profits from RCEP
  • mining boom of critical minerals (india)
  • xxx/AUD - short
    AUD/xxx - long
    ZAR

    Currency Fact Sheet

    Currency Safe-Haven Trending, Mean Reversion
    USD + safe-haven / risk off
    EUR + safe-haven / risk off
    JPY + safe-haven / risk off
    GBP - currently no safe-haven
    AUD - commodity based / risk on
    CAD - commodity based / risk on
    CHF - safe-haven / risk-off
    NZD - commodity based / risk on
    CNY -/+ on average, “less safe” than the USD and the JPY but “safer” than the GBP and the EUR
    (source)
    ZAR - commodity based/ risk on

    Trending vs Mean Reversion Markets